The foreign trade data of September will be released soon. Despite the impact of such disturbing factors as declining external demand, epidemic situation and typhoon weather, many market institutions still believe that foreign trade will remain resilient in September, the year-on-year growth rate of exports will narrow, and the performance of imports may be better than last month.
In August, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s foreign trade exports dropped significantly, exceeding expectations. Analysts from several market institutions believe that this situation will not recur in September. Huachuang Securities Research News believes that exports in September may still be weak. In US dollars, exports are expected to increase by 5% year-on-year, down about 2 percentage points from last month. The agency pointed out that from the export performance of South Korea and Vietnam in September, the pressure on foreign demand to fall back has been highlighted. South Korea’s exports increased by 2.8% year-on-year in September, weaker than that in August, the lowest value since October 2020. From the perspective of export destination structure, the growth rate of South Korea’s exports to major developed economies such as the United States, the European Union and Japan decreased in the first 20 days. At the same time, Vietnam’s exports grew 10.9% year-on-year in September, which is also far weaker than the 27.4% year-on-year growth in August
Data shows that in September, China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to above the boom and bust line. Most of the production, order and purchase indexes rebounded, but the supplier distribution index fell back. High frequency data show that the marginal improvement of the economy is driven by infrastructure investment and automobile consumption. According to the research report of Minsheng Bank, China’s domestic demand margin has improved, and the import growth rate will remain stable, with an expected year-on-year growth of 0.5% in US dollars.
Post time: Oct-10-2022